AUD/USD rises as dollar falls on Iran deal, jobs report awaited

AUD/USD rose on the day after the U.S. dollar weakened following reports that a U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement is close and after a fall in oil prices. The pair climbed from its 50-day moving average and traded near resistance levels around 0.7148.

President Trump commented that a diplomatic agreement with Iran was near completion, reducing concerns about a possible conflict in the Middle East. Lower oil prices followed, and traders cited reduced geopolitical risk and the drop in energy costs as factors that eased demand for the dollar and supported risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.

Earlier confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair had added volatility to currency markets, but the dollar's decline during the session was linked primarily to the easing of geopolitical premiums and weaker oil. Markets in the Asia-Pacific were noted to benefit from lower energy costs because several countries in the region are net oil importers.

Market attention shifted to Australia’s employment report, due later in the domestic session. Economists forecast a net gain of about 17,500 jobs, slightly below last month’s 17,900. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates twice in recent meetings to cool demand and has signaled a preference for a gradual slowdown in labor-market growth. A result that differs from the forecast is likely to move local markets and influence AUD/USD.

Technically, the pair has rebounded more than 600 pips from its 50-day moving average and is consolidating around the four-hour 200-period moving average at roughly 0.7148. The daily candle did not form a bullish engulfing pattern over the prior session. Intraday buyers were watching for a push above recent highs near 0.7175 and the psychological 0.72 level, while sellers were looking for a break below daily lows near 0.7090 and the 50-day moving average to open a path toward 0.70.

Key upside references include prior highs near 0.7280 to 0.73. On the downside, support clusters were noted around 0.70, 0.69 and earlier February lows near 0.6834. Volume and momentum around those levels will be monitored as liquidity thins in some sessions and participants position ahead of the employment release.

Traders positioned cautiously ahead of the jobs data, which will provide a new reading on Australia’s labor market and help determine whether the Australian dollar’s gains are sustained or give way to a pullback.