99.99% of Polymarket traders can’t replace a wage

The analysis examined public on-chain and platform trade records across thousands of Polymarket accounts during the study's sample period and concluded that 99.99% of accounts did not produce sustained profits large enough to substitute for a full-time wage after fees and transaction costs. The platform examined is a blockchain-based prediction market where users buy and sell shares that pay out if an event occurs.

Researchers reviewed executed trades, realized gains and losses, and net account balances. Returns were adjusted for platform fees and on-chain transaction (gas) costs. Profitability was measured across multiple trades and reporting periods rather than on single-event wins.

Most active accounts were small retail traders placing occasional bets on political, economic and event outcomes. A much smaller group of accounts used high-frequency strategies or provided liquidity and captured steady, small margins. The 99.99% figure reflects the share of accounts that did not achieve sustained, net-positive returns sufficient to replace full-time income during the sampled timeframe.

Factors cited in the data that reduced net profits included transaction fees and blockchain gas expenses, market spreads and slippage in thinly traded markets, and timing losses from chasing short-term momentum or misreading probability shifts. Market-making and large-stake hedging across correlated markets accounted for most of the platform’s consistent gains.

Outcome distribution showed a majority of accounts experienced small, intermittent wins but were net-negative over time once costs were included. A small fraction recorded large realized gains; many of those gains came from concentrated bets in low-liquidity markets or from early participation that faced pricing inefficiencies.

The analysis tracked account longevity and found few accounts remained net-positive across multiple months or market cycles. Accounts with sustained gains tended to have higher trade volumes, larger capital reserves and systematic approaches to risk management. Retail traders without those features were more likely to see profits reverse as markets updated.

The report used publicly available data and did not identify individual account holders. It did not capture off-chain hedges, individual motivations or unrealized portfolio positions. Fee and gas adjustments in the analysis are described as conservative estimates and could vary for specific accounts.

The analysis recommended that traders account for fees and transaction costs, consider market liquidity before placing large bets, and test strategies over longer horizons before treating trading as a source of full-time income.