Zuckerberg Eyes Meta Prediction-Market App

Mark Zuckerberg is exploring a prediction market app at Meta that would let users trade contracts tied to future events. The concept is modeled on existing event-trading platforms and is at an early, exploratory stage.

Zuckerberg has asked internal teams to study how a standalone app might work and whether it could fit with Meta's consumer products. The review covers product design, legal risks and policy questions.

The proposed app would let users buy and sell positions that pay out based on event outcomes, including elections, economic data, sports and entertainment. Market prices would reflect the balance of buyers and sellers and change as participants trade.

People familiar with the discussions say the effort is not a formal launch plan. Product, legal and safety teams would need to weigh integration with Facebook and Instagram and decide whether the service would run inside Meta or as an independent offering.

Different platforms handle settlement and custody in different ways. Some use cryptocurrency and decentralized systems, while others seek regulatory approval to operate as a cleared exchange. Meta would need to choose how trades settle and how customer funds are held.

Regulators will shape any development timeline. Markets that allow trading on political outcomes, public health events or financial indicators raise legal questions in multiple jurisdictions about whether contracts are gambling, commodities or securities. Meta's teams would likely consult outside counsel and regulators to identify required licenses and permissible designs.

The company would also need to define moderation policies and measures to limit misinformation and market manipulation. Sources cite questions about how to protect users and whether the app could generate revenue through trading fees or other mechanisms.

Meta has previously piloted and shelved standalone apps while deciding which products to scale. There is no public timeline for the prediction-market project. Meta has not announced formal plans and did not provide an on-the-record comment.