US May PCE 4.1% YoY; EUR/USD tests 1.13872 after breakout

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released May personal consumption expenditures data on June 25, 2026. The headline PCE price index increased 0.4% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. Both prints matched consensus forecasts.

Nominal personal spending rose 0.7% in May, above the 0.6% estimate. When adjusted for inflation, real personal spending increased 0.3%. Personal income advanced 0.7%, ahead of the 0.4% consensus. Those figures reflect household income and spending for the month of May.

Services inflation continued to be the largest contributor to core price growth. Shelter and other core services showed persistent increases. Initial weekly jobless claims have fallen to roughly 215,000, and producer price data earlier in June showed mixed wholesale pressures, with service-sector input costs remaining elevated in some areas.

On the broader data front, first-quarter GDP was revised up to an annualized 2.1% and durable goods orders have shown resilience in recent reports. Those releases and the May PCE readings are part of the current set of indicators used to track inflation and economic activity.

In currency markets, EUR/USD experienced a technical breakout on short-term charts and tested the daily resistance level at 1.13872. On hourly charts the pair traded above the 9-period exponential moving average and a 9/21 moving-average cross. The 14-period RSI was near 60 and rising. Daily pivot support was around 1.13559, with further support near 1.13273 and resistance near 1.14158. Price and indicator levels are based on top-of-book data from OANDA Global Markets Ltd.

The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure because it adjusts for consumer substitution and covers a broad range of expenditures. Compared with the consumer price index, the PCE tends to report lower headline readings over time due to those methodological differences.

Market participants will monitor upcoming economic releases and Federal Reserve commentary for additional data on inflation and consumer demand.