US-Iran interim deal fuels risk rally; Nasdaq, Dow rise

U.S. and Iranian officials announced an interim agreement on Monday, June 15, to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement came in the early Asia session and prompted sharp market moves: Nasdaq 100 futures jumped about 3% and S&P 500 futures rose roughly 2%, with major indexes opening higher.

E-mini Nasdaq and S&P futures staged gap-ups that trimmed almost 90% of a two-week corrective pullback that began in early June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved back above short-term moving averages during the same session. Risk-sensitive assets also reacted: the Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar and gold posted an intraday rebound after recent declines.

On technical measures, the Nasdaq 100 moved back above its 20-day moving average, with short-term support near 29,700 and upside targets in the 30,530–30,795 area. A sustained hourly close below 29,700 would expose a fall to around 29,000 or lower. The Dow traded above its 20-day average with immediate support between 51,390 and 51,235 and an all-time high near 51,778; an hourly close beneath 51,235 would remove the current bullish technical setup. AUD/USD recovered toward its 20- and 50-day averages, with 0.7055 as a short-term pivot and resistance clusters near 0.7100 and 0.7120–0.7140. Gold extended a corrective rebound from a recent low, testing short-term support in the 4,243–4,220 range and eyeing intermediate resistance at 4,373–4,394 and the 200-day moving average near 4,432–4,466; a breakdown under 4,220 would reopen downside risk.

No official text of the interim agreement had been released at the time of the market reaction. Iranian officials indicated the agreement text would be published only after a formal signing planned for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland. The announcement did not specify the scope of any sanctions relief, leaving uncertainty about whether oil exports would be fully unrestricted or subject to conditional waivers tied to further negotiations.

Public comments on transit arrangements for shipping through the Strait diverged. President Trump posted on social media that the Strait would be “toll-free,” while Iranian officials and state outlets signalled Tehran intends to levy service or transit fees on vessels. That discrepancy remains unresolved and could require operational clarifications for ship movements.

Security developments in the region carry continuing relevance for markets. Hours before the interim announcement, Israeli airstrikes hit targets in Beirut, and several hard-line members of Israel's cabinet criticised the U.S.-Iran understanding. Israel is not a party to the memorandum and retains the option to act independently, which market participants note could alter the ceasefire dynamics.

Traders reacted quickly to the headlines and pushed risk assets higher during early trade. Market analysts pointed to the lack of a published deal and the open questions on sanctions, transit fees and regional military activity as factors that leave the rally vulnerable to rapid re-pricing if details or events differ from the initial announcement.