Trump Signals Possible US-Iran Deal; Stocks Rally, Oil Falls

On Thursday, President Trump told reporters that a comprehensive US‑Iran peace agreement could be signed in Europe as soon as this weekend and that “discussions brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership” were under way. The comments came after threatened strikes were pulled back.

U.S. equity benchmarks rose sharply after the remarks. The S&P 500 gained 1.8% and the Nasdaq climbed 3.3%. Energy benchmarks moved lower as crude prices fell: West Texas Intermediate settled down about 6% at $86.43 a barrel, a two‑month low, as markets pared a geopolitical premium tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

Technology stocks led gains. A gauge of global chipmakers jumped roughly 8% as investors bought AI infrastructure and semiconductor names. Traders pointed to strong demand for recent large private deals as one factor easing worries that big listings would drain liquidity from public markets.

Fixed‑income and currency markets shifted with the risk rally. The yield on the 10‑year U.S. Treasury fell about 10 basis points to 4.46%. The U.S. dollar index slid 0.4%. The euro traded at $1.1579, the pound at $1.3416 and the Japanese yen near 159.97 per dollar. Spot gold rose about 3.4% to $4,211 an ounce.

OANDA market strategist Kelvin Wong noted the Nasdaq 100 rally paused just below its 20‑day moving average and the 61.8% retracement of an earlier decline, with short‑term resistance near 29,700 and support around 29,000. Wong said an hourly close above 29,700 would open the path to higher levels, while a break below 29,000 could signal renewed weakness.

Private market activity was large. SpaceX closed a $75 billion capital raise at $135 per share. The offering drew about $250 billion in institutional demand and more than $100 billion in retail orders, leaving it nearly four times oversubscribed.

New data showed the United States exported roughly 10.5 million barrels of crude per day, overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's largest oil exporter.

Asian markets, which had closed lower earlier in the day, reacted to the overnight developments with futures indicating sizable gains. The Nikkei, KOSPI and Hang Seng futures showed sharper openings, while regional currencies such as the Indonesian rupiah recovered toward 17,900 per dollar and the South Korean won traded near 1,520.6 per dollar.

Market moves on Thursday reflected a rapid reweighting of geopolitical and energy risk across equities, bonds, currencies and commodities following the comments on a potential US‑Iran agreement.