Oil tops $107 as U.S.-Iran talks stall; dollar slips

On Monday in Asian trade, Brent futures rose more than 2% to about $107.97 a barrel after U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled, adding a risk premium to Middle East oil flows. The rise followed reports of delayed diplomatic progress and concerns about potential supply disruptions.

The jump in crude prices fed inflation concerns and increased pressure on market expectations for interest-rate cuts this year. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to roughly 98.4, down about 0.1% from recent levels.

Major currency pairs moved modestly. EUR/USD edged to $1.1734, and USD/JPY was around 159.26, remaining close to the 160 level that investors view as a likely trigger for Japanese intervention if the yen weakens further. The euro’s sensitivity to oil reflected the euro area’s dependence on energy imports.

Equity markets showed gains in technology-related stocks. Chip firms led advances across Asian bourses, and U.S. futures registered early volatility before technology sector momentum stabilized sentiment. The pan-European STOXX 600 was flat near 610.86. German wind-turbine maker Nordex rose about 8.3% after reporting stronger-than-expected core earnings and sales, while French auto supplier Forvia climbed about 3.5% after announcing the sale of its car-interiors unit for €1.82 billion.

Geopolitical headlines included Washington’s cancellation of a high-level envoy trip to Islamabad and reports that Iran might prioritize reopening the Strait of Hormuz while postponing broader nuclear negotiations. Market participants treated those reports as mixed for near-term supply risk.

Market attention is on a heavy U.S. data calendar and central bank remarks this week. The first estimate of first-quarter U.S. GDP is expected to show a rebound, with consensus near a 2.2% annualized gain after a 0.5% reading in the final quarter of 2025 that was affected by the federal government shutdown. Consumer confidence and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, are due later in the week.

Traders are monitoring dollar levels in the high-98s, the yen’s proximity to 160, and oil prices above $100 for potential effects on inflation and monetary policy. Several central bank decisions and speeches scheduled this week add to the list of near-term market catalysts.