Markets on Edge Ahead of RBA Decision, ISM Services, Oil

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% today. The decision is due at 12:30 p.m. Singapore time, followed by a press conference at 1:30 p.m. Singapore time. Markets are watching the statement and comments for guidance on future policy.

The US Institute for Supply Management Services PMI is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. Singapore time. A Federal Reserve official is also due to speak at that time. March factory orders rose 1.5% month-on-month, compared with a 0.5% consensus. The US 10-year Treasury yield traded near 4.15%.

Oil rose after exchanges of fire in the Persian Gulf and an Iranian attack on the United Arab Emirates. Brent crude closed near $114 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate remained above a $100.20 short-term support. Market technical levels show near-term resistance for WTI at $112.84 and further resistance at $116.56 and $119.54. A sustained close below $100.20 would open a path toward supports near $95.10 and $90.50.

Currency and equity moves were mixed in early Asian trading. The Australian dollar weakened to about 0.7167 ahead of the RBA decision and the ASX 200 traded cautiously. S&P 500 futures were flat after the cash index fell 0.4% in the prior session. Semiconductor stocks cooled after recent gains. The US dollar index held above 97.95 and remained capped below roughly 99.16. The euro and sterling trimmed recent gains.

The yen stabilized after a sharp late-April decline in USD/JPY from about 160.73 to roughly 156.5. Market participants flagged possible follow-up intervention from Tokyo, particularly during the London–New York overlap.

Gold traded near $4,521, testing a recent low around $4,510. Higher nominal Treasury yields alongside stable inflation expectations have pushed real yields up, weighing on speculative growth stocks and non-yielding assets.

Key events remaining on global calendars include the RBA interest rate decision and press conference, the US ISM Services PMI release and Federal Reserve remarks. Each item could affect currencies, equities and bond yields in the coming sessions.