CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Mirrors 2022 Bear Pattern

On Wednesday, onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin’s recent price action is mirroring the March 2022 bear market. The firm said Bitcoin stalled at the 200-day moving average near $82,400 before falling toward roughly $76,000 as demand weakened and U.S.-based spot ETFs moved to net sellers.

CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, compared the current sequence to March 2022, when Bitcoin rallied about 43% from its lows before hitting the 200-day moving average and resuming a downtrend. He noted Bitcoin rose roughly 37% from April 2026 lows before encountering the same resistance level this month. Moreno wrote, “In bear markets, the 200-day MA has consistently acted as the boundary between relief rally territory and trend resumption.” He added that failure to clear the average is a strong technical confirmation the bear market remains structurally intact.

The report identified several areas of weakening demand. Speculative interest in perpetual futures fell sharply after Bitcoin moved above $82,000 as leveraged traders closed long positions. Spot buying also weakened. U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs shifted to net sellers, offloading about 4,000 BTC on a net basis after buying as much as 64,000 BTC over a 30-day span earlier in May.

Exchange analysts noted the speed of the recent selloff and described it as consistent with a short rally underpinned by limited demand. CryptoQuant pointed out the Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium remained negative during both the April–May rally and the following pullback, a metric the firm interprets as low participation from U.S. institutional and retail investors; historically, sustained bull runs have tended to coincide with a positive Coinbase premium.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index dropped from 40 to 20, a range the firm classifies as “extremely bearish.” The firm said readings between 0 and 20 have often been followed by either further price declines or extended sideways price compression. If the correction continues, CryptoQuant identified around $70,000-its Traders' Onchain Realized Price-as potential support. At that level many traders would have little or no unrealized profit, which has historically eased selling pressure and helped prices stabilize.

Bitcoin was trading near $77,320, up about 0.6% over the previous 24 hours. CryptoQuant and other analysts based their assessment mainly on technical indicators and onchain metrics rather than macroeconomic factors.