CryptoQuant: Bitcoin could bottom near $53,600

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reported that bitcoin could find a bottom near its realized price of $53,600, the aggregate on‑chain cost basis of all holders.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, wrote in a Wednesday report that major bear market troughs have historically formed at or slightly below the realized price. The firm called the realized price a candidate for a valuation floor rather than a confirmed cycle bottom.

CryptoQuant’s weekly data showed total demand-combining speculative perpetual‑futures activity and apparent spot demand-fell by 652,000 bitcoin last week, the largest weekly contraction since January 2022. The firm reported that both futures and spot demand deteriorated sharply after bitcoin slipped below $60,000, which triggered long liquidations and accelerated spot selling. Bitcoin fell to a low near $59,000 last week and later staged a partial recovery.

Longer‑term demand trends weakened as well. CryptoQuant found one‑year apparent demand growth turned negative and is declining below its moving average at the fastest pace since February 2024, indicating fewer net buyers now than a year earlier.

Institutional interest through spot exchange‑traded funds also slowed. Thirty‑day ETF demand growth fell to negative 74,000 bitcoin, the weakest reading since U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. The report said ETFs recently contributed to net supply as investors trimmed exposure instead of absorbing selling pressure.

Realized losses-the amount of bitcoin sold at a loss by holders-rose but have not reached past capitulation peaks. Holders realized losses totaling 187,000 bitcoin over the past 30 days, compared with about 400,000 bitcoin when prices first dropped below $60,000 earlier in the bear market and roughly 1.2 million bitcoin during the FTX‑driven selloff in November 2022.

Moreno wrote, “The absence of a capitulation‑level spike in realized losses indicates that a large cohort of holders is still above water at $59,000, and has not yet reached the psychological threshold of forced or panic selling.” He added that while the realized price has often marked bottoms in past cycles, a durable shift to a bull market would require an improvement in demand metrics.

The report recommended treating the current realized price as a valuation floor candidate until total demand stabilizes, ETF flows recover and realized losses reach levels consistent with past seller exhaustion.