Cboe launches Cboe Predicts binary S&P 500 contracts

Cboe Global Markets launched Cboe Predicts, a suite of binary option contracts tied to the Mini‑S&P 500 Index (XSP). The contracts are listed under tickers XSPBW and XSPBX and are currently available to clients of Interactive Brokers; Cboe expects the products to list on Charles Schwab in the coming months.

Each contract is one‑tenth the size of a full S&P 500 index option. The XSP‑based binaries pay a fixed amount at expiration depending on whether a specified S&P 500 outcome occurs, creating a yes‑or‑no payoff rather than a variable options payoff. Cboe positioned the contracts for retail traders who want straightforward event outcomes rather than multi‑leg strategies.

Cboe introduced the products in a Tuesday press release and framed them as an extension of its existing S&P index options lineup, which includes SPX 0DTE options that expire at the end of the trading day and let traders take short‑term positions on where the S&P 500 will close.

JJ Kinahan, head of retail expansion and alternative investment products at Cboe, described the contracts as “simple ‘yes‑or‑no' payout event contracts.” Kinahan said the offering expands choice within Cboe's S&P 500 options suite.

Cboe emphasized that the XSP prediction contracts are structured as security options and will trade under the same regulatory framework that governs U.S.‑listed options. The clarification relates to an ongoing regulatory debate over whether event contracts fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or state authorities.

The launch follows growing interest in prediction‑style markets from both specialized platforms and established financial firms. Firms that have introduced or explored similar products include Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, Coinbase, Polymarket and Kalshi. Cboe said the new contracts rely on existing options market infrastructure and the exchange's compliance processes.

Initial access is through Interactive Brokers; Cboe did not provide a specific date for the Charles Schwab listing beyond saying it is expected in the coming months.