Bitcoin near $63,500 after six-day rally; half supply at loss

Bitcoin traded around $63,500 in early July after a six-day advance that followed June lows near $57,800. The rally occurred amid light summer liquidity and lifted prices back above $60,000.

Market participants are split between viewing the rise as a short-term relief rally and as a potential structural bottom. Trading desks cautioned that thin order books this season can amplify moves, complicating assessment of whether buying reflects durable demand.

Several trading firms pointed to a mix of factors behind the rebound. Softer macroeconomic data and a slightly more dovish tilt from the Federal Reserve coincided with easing geopolitical tensions and positive headlines for ether, contributing to a broader risk-on mood.

A U.S. payrolls report showing 57,000 jobs added versus a 110,000 consensus reduced market expectations for a year-end rate hike. Data also showed large wallets accumulated more than 270,000 BTC near the 200-week moving average, and options activity shifted from downside protection into $60,000–$70,000 calls.

Ether rose about 13.5% on the week and outperformed bitcoin over the same period. The rise followed an institutional product launch for ether on July 1; that launch came after staff and budget reductions at the related foundation and roughly $345 million of spot ether ETF outflows in the prior week.

Spot bitcoin ETF flows were mixed. A $221.7 million inflow on July 2 ended a 10-day outflow run totaling about $2.73 billion, but year-to-date net outflows for spot bitcoin ETFs remained near $5.4 billion. Data for July 6 showed a net inflow of $266 million into U.S.-listed spot bitcoin funds, led by $209 million into a single large product; spot ether funds recorded about $20.7 million of inflows that day.

Exchange analysts said technical indicators suggested forced selling in June was easing. Bitcoin’s quick recovery above $60,000 within four trading sessions led some analysts to view the break under roughly $58,000 as a failed breakdown. “The sequence matters: spot demand emerged at a fresh marginal low before the macro-driven rally,” wrote analysts at a major exchange.

Longer-term on-chain data provided a contrasting signal. Research firm K33 reported that more than 50% of circulating bitcoin traded at a loss as of early June, a threshold first crossed on June 5. K33 noted that in prior instances when over half the supply was underwater, one-year forward returns varied widely and cycle bottoms arrived between 10 and 101 days after the crossover.

Other market indicators showed caution. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index remained negative for a prolonged streak, and on-chain providers reported a rise in exchange deposits. Some sell-side analysts kept year-end targets unchanged, while others said sustained ETF inflows would be the clearest sign of renewed institutional demand.